The first is the phenomenon of "overdraft" in the early stage. Originally expected that the "Golden September and Silver 10" steel market peak season, demand will be significantly released, resulting in steel prices all the way up, but in September, the market did not appear this situation, but the transaction is more light, the terminal procurement of steel is scarce. In August, most of the middle traders were very optimistic about the market in September, and began to stock up and stock up, which led to an extremely active market atmosphere, which drove the steel price at that time. By September, problems such as increased pressure on steel mills and accelerated release of production capacity have increased, and steel prices have continued to rise.
Again, supply and demand, data show that the average daily output of crude steel in August was 2.13 million tons, slightly higher than the 2.11 million tons in July. Steel production continued to maintain a high level of operation, and steel companies reduced their production efforts. Downstream demand is insufficient to follow up. According to statistics, since July, the overall price of steel products has stopped falling and rebounded comprehensively. A wave of rapid rise in prices has accelerated the process of “destocking†in the steel market. It has been continuously falling for 25 consecutive weeks, but since mid-August, This situation no longer appears in some areas. In some areas, the stocks stopped falling, and the pressure from steel mills came along, and they began to cut the ex-factory prices.
Finally, on the macro level, the steel PMI index in August rose by 0.9 percentage points to 53.4% ​​from the previous month. It should be a good expectation for the steel season, but the actual situation is not satisfactory. In this September, the macro aspect. There is also no good news to boost. The last round of environmental protection has stopped, and crude steel production has also been running at a high level. When the current market is not clear, the market will use the snail as a weather vane. With the sluggish performance of the snail in September, market confidence is affected. The blow is bigger.
"The peak season is not prosperous, the off-season is not light" has been particularly evident in the past two years. In the process of global steel demand decline, market speculation is more frequent, and merchants are overdrafting the market. Therefore, the steel market “sees the wind is rain, after the rain is empty†is strange, the steel market has been difficult to use the law of demand changes to deal with the market development of.
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