Abstract “In the first half of 2015, the global economy continued to recover moderately, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy did not decrease. The growth rate of China's raw material industry production and investment declined, exports improved, imports fell sharply, and prices of major products rose and fell. Overall economic benefits...
"In the first half of 2015, the global economy continued to recover moderately, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued unabated. China's raw material industry production and investment growth rate declined, exports improved, imports fell sharply, and prices of major products rose and fell. The economic benefits are declining. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the decline in the growth rate of China's raw material industry production and investment is expected to narrow, the export pressure is still large, product prices continue to differentiate, and some industries will continue to operate at a low profit. In the first half of 2015, China's raw material industry production and investment growth rate declined, exports improved, imports fell sharply, prices of major products fluctuated, and the overall economic efficiency of the industry declined. At the same time, the contradiction between market supply and demand was prominent, and corporate credit was difficult. Problems such as increased operating pressures and severe foreign trade environment have also plagued the development of the raw material industry. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the decline in the growth rate of China's raw material industry production and investment is expected to narrow, export pressure is still large, product prices continue to differentiate, and some industries will continue to operate at a low profit. Based on this, it is recommended to expand market demand, narrow the gap between supply and demand; strengthen fund management, broaden financing channels; accelerate research and development innovation, improve enterprises' ability to resist risks; increase foreign cooperation and actively respond to trade frictions.
A Basic operation Production slowdown The output of major products decreased year-on-year. From January to April 2015, raw material industrial production continued to slow down. The growth rate of raw material industry added value was 7.03%, down 0.08 percentage points from January to March, down from 1.63 in the same period last year. Percentage points. Among them, the growth rate of added value of steel, nonferrous metals and building materials industry was lower than 2.7, 3.7 and 3.7 percentage points respectively in the same period of last year, and petrochemicals were slightly higher than 0.5 percentage points in the same period of last year.
Investment growth slowed further in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of investment in raw materials industry declined further. From January to May, the growth rate of investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the same period of last year; the investment scale of the steel industry decreased, and the growth rate of investment decreased by 9 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Among them, ferrous metal mining and dressing industry, ferrous metal smelting Investment in rolling processing industry decreased by 15.8% and 6.2% respectively; investment growth in non-ferrous metals industry decreased by 1% year-on-year, among which the investment scale of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry decreased, and the growth rate of investment in smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 7.6 compared with last year. Percentage points; the investment scale of the building materials industry has further expanded, but the growth rate has slowed down markedly. The growth rate of non-metallic mining and dressing industry and mineral products industry decreased by 12.2 and 3.6 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of last year.
Exports have improved. From January to May 2015, the export of raw materials has improved. Despite the cancellation of export tax rebate for boron-containing steel products, China's steel export growth rate has decreased compared with the same period of last year, but the export volume still reached 43.52 million tons, maintaining a high growth rate of 28.2%, and the export growth rate from January to May. The decline was narrower than last month; the unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports were 2.06 million tons, up 35.4% year-on-year, up from 29.1 percentage points in the same period last year.
During the same period, due to the continued weak domestic demand, the import of raw materials continued to decrease. The import of steel products was 5.49 million tons, down 10.3% year-on-year, far lower than the import growth rate of 6.4% in the same period last year; the import of unwrought copper and copper was 1.9 million tons. , a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, while the import growth rate in the same period last year was as high as 33.6%.
The prices of major products have risen and fallen in the first half of the year, and the prices of major raw materials have risen and fallen, showing obvious differentiation. The price of steel products continued to decline. The CSPI price index of China Steel Association was 70.32 at the end of May, which was at a historically low level. The price of urea and natural rubber in chemical products rose strongly in May, and the price of soda ash decreased month by month. The price of non-ferrous metals showed an overall upward trend. Taking copper price as an example, the price of copper was 45,895 yuan/ton in January, which declined in February. After March, it continued to rise. In May, the price rose to 44,108 yuan/ton. Other metals such as aluminum, lead and zinc fluctuated higher; cement price Declining, from 307.24 yuan / ton in January to 298.66 yuan / ton in April.
The overall economic benefits of the industry declined. From January to April 2015, the overall profitability of the raw materials industry was weak. Except for the growth rate of profit from chemical, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries, which has accelerated compared with the same period of last year, the profit growth rate of other industries has declined, and some industries have even experienced negative growth.
The profit of the steel industry decreased by 25% compared with the same period of last year. The profit of mining, smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 49.59% and 2.68% respectively; the profit of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry decreased by 21.79%, which was further expanded compared with the same period of last year; The profit growth rate of mining and mining and non-metallic mineral products industry has dropped significantly compared with the same period of last year.
B. Key issues Product demand reduces market supply and demand conflicts . Demand for raw materials continues to decrease due to the downward pressure on the macro economy and weak domestic and international market demand. From January to May, national fixed asset investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from January to April, and down 5.8 percentage points from the same period of last year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, down 2.5 percentage points from the same period of last year. Downstream mainly in the automotive industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, the growth rate of industrial added value of railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry has declined from January to April. In terms of production, the output of major raw materials such as pig iron, crude steel, steel, and ten non-ferrous metals increased in May. Under the overall sluggish market demand, the increase in output has intensified the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.
Corporate credit is still difficult In recent years, due to the bank's strict control over the scale of loans for overcapacity industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, and flat glass, some raw material enterprises are facing difficulties in financing and financing. Although the central bank has cut interest rates and cuts twice for three consecutive times since November 2014, the actual impact on the manufacturing industry has not yet fully manifested, and there are still major difficulties in the credit of raw material enterprises.
According to the China Steel Association, bank loans of member steel companies fell by 4.74% year-on-year at the end of April, of which short-term loans fell by 5.76% and long-term loans fell by 1.82%. In addition, the amount of domestic loans used in fixed assets investment above the cement and flat glass manufacturing industries also declined. Affected by the tightness of funds, some raw material enterprises were forced to stop production or cut production, further increasing credit pressure.
The operating pressure of enterprises has increased to May. Due to the expected rebound in steel prices and the rebound of the financial market, the demand for raw fuel has increased, and some raw materials such as iron ore prices have shown signs of rising. At the end of May, the price index of China's iron ore was 221.52. , higher than April's 209.59.
In addition, the implementation of new environmental standards such as the new environmental protection law and the “Regulations on Steel Industry Standards†not only increased the assessment indicators of enterprises, but also strengthened the environmental protection and energy conservation constraints on enterprises, and forced enterprises to increase environmental protection investment and launch a new round of environmental protection. Project construction. For example, in environmentally sensitive areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta, the implementation of the reduction capacity replacement program and the stricter control of total pollutant emissions have greatly increased the operating costs of raw material enterprises. Due to the continued sluggish domestic economy and the lack of significant improvement in downstream demand, prices of steel and cement products continued to fall. Under the double attack of rising costs and falling prices of major products, raw material enterprises as a whole face greater operational pressures.
The external trade environment is still severely affected by factors such as the weak recovery of the world economy and the attempts of countries to expand exports to drive growth. Global trade protectionism has warmed up. As of 2014, China has been the country with the most trade frictions for 19 consecutive years. In 2015, China's foreign trade situation was still severe and complicated, and the export of raw materials was more difficult. Taking the steel industry as an example, from January to May, nine countries and regions including Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and Australia have successively launched steel products such as low-carbon wire rods, hot coils, and steel ropes. There were 9 anti-dumping investigations, 2 countervailing investigations and 1 anti-circumvention investigation.
In addition, some preliminary investigations have already produced rulings. For example, Peru imposes an anti-dumping duty of US$60.7 to US$89.8 per ton on domestically produced hot-rolled steel pipes. The EU has made oriented silicon steels originating in China, Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries. In anti-dumping preliminary ruling, China Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and other enterprises will be subject to an anti-dumping duty of 28.7%.
C Analysis forecast The signs of stabilization show a narrowing of the decline in growth rate It is expected that the decline in the growth rate of raw material industry production and investment is expected to narrow in the second half of the year. First, the major economies such as the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan have experienced a moderate recovery and the export environment is improving. The United States may be affected by factors such as the strength of the US dollar and expected interest rate hikes. The growth rate of the euro zone countries is expected to recover further due to low oil prices, weak euros, and quantitative easing policies. The Japanese economy is expected to be driven by the resumption of nuclear power. Small increase. Second, the domestic economy is expected to improve, and signs of stabilization are emerging. In May, the economic data showed a weak and stable trend. The growth rate of industrial added value rebounded slightly. The cumulative growth of commercial housing sales continued to decline for 14 consecutive months and the growth rate was 3.1%. The decline in new construction area was further narrowed. The improvement has been made, but the growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to fall, indicating that the economic stabilization momentum is still insufficient. With the gradual emergence of policy effects such as the promotion of commercial housing sales, interest rate cuts, and fiscal, it is expected that China's economy will improve significantly in the second half of the year. Third, downstream demand is expected to increase. The implementation of the “One Belt, One Road†strategy and the increased infrastructure investment in the railway, airport, water conservancy and environmental protection industries are expected to stimulate the expansion of production by raw material enterprises.
Export pressure is still relatively large. In the second half of the year, due to the continuous recovery of manufacturing industries in Europe and the United States, China's exports of raw materials are expected to continue to expand. In particular, benefiting from the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road†strategy, countries along the route will carry out large-scale infrastructure construction, which provides a good opportunity for China's raw material products to broaden foreign demand. Taking steel products as an example, according to statistics, among the 64 countries along the “Belt and Roadâ€, net steel importing countries account for 70%, and these countries will become important target countries for China's steel exports. Despite this, China's trade situation is still severe and complicated. International trade protectionism will not weaken in the short term. The external environment is tightening and competition in the international market is intensifying. The number of cases of China's raw material products encountered in international trade relief investigations will not decrease. Export pressures remain high.
The differentiation of product prices is affected by the signs of stabilization of the economy and the increase in downstream demand. It is expected that some raw materials will continue to rise in the second half of the year. The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc are subject to some upside potential due to the peak season of consumption. The price of copper continued to stabilize and rebound. The price of aluminum was kept at a low level due to the downward adjustment of electricity prices, and the price trend of lead and zinc was further enhanced. At the same time, some products are affected by overcapacity and oversupply, and prices are unlikely to rise sharply. Taking steel prices as an example, in the first five months, the national crude steel output was 340 million tons, down 1.6% year-on-year; the apparent consumption of crude steel was 301 million tons, down 5.1% year-on-year, and the supply was oversupplied. It is expected that steel production will remain at a high level in the second half of the year, and there will be a situation of oversupply, and steel prices are unlikely to rebound significantly. The price of chemical products will be affected by the decline in crude oil prices, and the price trend of building materials will mainly depend on the development trend of real estate investment and sales.
Some industries continue to operate at a low profit. In the second half of the year, iron ore and coal prices are expected to continue to rise. Labor costs and land costs continue to increase, and production costs in the raw materials industry are expected to increase. In addition, the problems of capital shortage and financing difficulties faced by some enterprises are difficult to be effectively solved in the short term, and the production and operation costs of raw material enterprises will increase. On the other hand, the price of some products is affected by overcapacity and oversupply, and continues to fluctuate downwards. The economic benefits of raw material enterprises are unlikely to change. Taking the steel industry as an example, the steel price index at the end of March decreased by 9% compared with the beginning of the year, and the steel manufacturing cost decreased by 8%. The steel price dropped significantly higher than the cost reduction. In April and May, the steel price dropped further, and the iron ore and coal prices were somewhat reduced. As the price rises, the profit margin of steel companies will further shrink, and this situation will continue into the second half of the year.
D Policy Proposal Expanding market demand and improving corporate risk resistance First, we will continue to implement a series of steady growth policies such as increasing infrastructure investment, interest rate cuts, and tax cuts. We will increase domestic demand for raw materials by expanding downstream infrastructure demand and reducing burdens for enterprises. Demand will drive the steady growth of the raw material industry; second, fully grasp the opportunities brought by the “One Belt, One Road†strategy. With the release of infrastructure construction needs along the route, the demand for China's steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials and other products will increase greatly. The region will become a new growth point for the consumption of raw materials in China; the third is to further promote new industrialization, urbanization, informationization, and agricultural modernization, and to play the role of the four-industry construction in the consumption of raw materials such as steel and building materials; Cooperation with downstream enterprises, production on demand, not blindly expanding production, alleviating the contradiction of oversupply.
Broaden financing channels First, encourage raw material enterprises to strengthen fund management, make reasonable predictions on the price changes of raw materials such as iron ore and coal, prepare for them in advance, strengthen inventory management, shorten inventory cycle, and reduce the cost of capital occupation of enterprises; Broaden financing channels, optimize financing structure, reduce dependence on bank lending, appropriately introduce strategic investors, and reduce corporate debt levels; third, strengthen logistics management, use scientific methods to rationally plan and coordinate logistics activities, improve logistics efficiency, and improve products. Turnaround speed, reducing corporate warehousing and shipping costs.
Accelerate R&D and innovation. First, encourage enterprises to increase R&D investment, vigorously develop new technologies and new products, focus on developing core technologies and high-tech products with independent intellectual property rights, and enhance product differentiation and differentiated competitiveness. Second, peg to the downstream market. Demand, focus on the construction of major national projects, accelerate the development and production of key strategic materials, such as high-performance carbon fiber, high-purity polysilicon, high-performance biomaterials, etc., reduce import dependence and guarantee the supply capacity of China's materials; Renovate, improve industrial equipment level and production technology, promote energy-saving and environmental protection technologies, improve the quality and stability of raw materials, and enhance the competitiveness of similar products.
Strengthening foreign cooperation First, we will actively establish an export coordination mechanism to ensure orderly competition and effective control of the international market. After a trade dispute, we can use high-level diplomacy, negotiation and dialogue to eliminate misunderstandings and differences, and try to resolve them through consultation. Second, play The communication function of trade associations, establish anti-dumping early warning system, actively organize enterprise cooperation, assist enterprises to respond to foreign affairs, and properly resolve trade disputes; third, export enterprises strengthen their study and research on WTO rules, familiar with international environment and market changes, and follow trade. The rules are to export foreign trade, regulate the production and marketing behavior of enterprises, and avoid trade disputes to the maximum extent. (Contributed by the CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)
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