Analyticals further pointed out that the average operating rate of global petrochemical plants will remain at a median level of 80% in 2012, and the start of construction will begin to increase by the end of this year. However, for high-cost manufacturers, the profitability of the device will fall to a cyclical low.
The pace of recovery in demand for petrochemical products in North America will be slower in 2012, mainly due to the slow pace of economic recovery in the region, the high unemployment rate, and the low consumer confidence index. Analyticals said that in 2011, ethylene demand in North America exceeded 30 million tons, and it is expected that ethylene demand in this region will increase slowly in 2012 and 2013, and the growth rate will be close to GDP growth rate. The rapid development of shale gas in North America is a strong guarantee for the low cost of ethane feedstock. Based on this understanding, some producers in North America are planning to use ethane feedstock for low-cost expansion, and the newly announced capacity in the region has reached 7.6 million tons per year.
Affected by the slow growth of local ethylene demand, new capacity investment in mature markets such as Western Europe and parts of Asia will be limited. Analytical analysis shows that manufacturers in these regions have focused their investments on reducing costs, focusing on improving the energy efficiency of their installations, increasing the flexibility of raw materials, and the modernization of their installations.
For aromatic products, prices have fallen from the 2011 highs. The US aromatics market has fallen back to normal levels, and the European market is returning to normal levels. In the fall of 2011, the prices of aromatic hydrocarbons in the region rose sharply due to logistics issues. Analyticals said that the current production of benzene from steam crackers in North America is estimated at 1.6 million tons per year, a reduction of 1.2 million tons per year compared to the peak in 2004, and the current output of benzene from crackers is only 22% of production.
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