In the case of the “transformation cost†of the coal industry and the demand will not be reduced, coal prices will remain at a high level, and the contradiction between coal and electricity may be intensified.
Recently, "Weiwang" News Weekly was informed that 10 thermal power companies in Shanxi Province reported in the Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association that 10 power plants had accumulated losses of more than 9.7 billion yuan from 2008 to 2010, and there was a serious shortage of cash flow. The company has been insolvent, and “the business situation has deepened and deteriorated, and it has become difficult to sustainâ€. The power plant requires the association to report to the relevant state ministries.
By the end of 2010, Shanxi Province had installed power generation capacity of more than 44 million kilowatts, and thermal power installed capacity accounted for 97%. In 2010, the province's power generation capacity was about 206 billion kilowatt hours, of which 68.5 billion kilowatt hours were delivered. Last year, Shanxi's coal production reached a record high, reaching more than 740 million tons. In the “coal-producing and power-transporting†province of Shanxi, such “joint letters†will be staged every year.
At the same time, our reporter learned that in the next few years, China's coal industry will substantially increase investment in safety production. Under the condition that demand will not be attenuated, factors such as cost transmission will push coal prices to maintain high levels of operation. "will increase. The people in the power industry interviewed believe that the state should accelerate and promote the reform of the power system with the electricity price mechanism as the core. Some experts suggested that the pilot measures to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity and the coal resource tax should be launched at the same time, and the "price bundling" reform should be carried out to break the contradiction between coal and electricity while ensuring the smooth progress of the coal market reform.
The era of "high security costs"
At present, coal mine safety production is an important area for safe production, and it is a "top priority" for some coal major provinces. Some experts told the "Weiwang" News Weekly that with the deepening of the economic development mode, governments and enterprises at all levels will face stricter safety production assessment and accountability mechanisms, and raising the cost of safe production is an inevitable choice. In the next two or three years, China will substantially increase the investment in coal mine safety production.
First, the construction of mine safety and hedging "six major systems" has become a rigid indicator. According to the requirements of the State Council, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Supervision in August 2010 identified coal mine monitoring and control, personnel positioning, emergency hedging, pressure self-rescue, water supply rescue and communication liaison and other safe havens "six systems "Build a perfect timetable.
Among them, before the end of 2010, all coal mines completed the construction of mine monitoring and control, pressure self-rescue, water supply rescue and communication system; at the end of 2011, all coal mines completed the underground personnel positioning system; before the end of June 2012, all coal (rock ) With gas (carbon dioxide) highlighting high gas in mines, central enterprises and state-owned key coal mines, mining mines that are easy to self-ignite coal seams, complete the construction of emergency hedging systems; before the end of June 2013, all coal mines must complete emergency avoidance The construction of the insurance system is perfect. At the National Two Sessions this spring, Zhao Tiemei, deputy director of the State Administration of Work Safety and director of the State Administration of Coal Supervision, said that “the coal mine emergency shelters will be difficult to buildâ€.
Among the “six major systemsâ€, the “emergency risk avoidance system†for the first large-scale construction of mines in China may be the largest investment in coal mines. Take the Changcun Coal Mine of Shanxi Pan'an Group as an example. This is the first mine in the country to install an emergency hedging system. Changcun mine produces about five or six million tons of coal per year, and there are about 600 people working in each class. At present, Changcun Mine has installed 8 underground mobile rescue capsules and a permanent refuge chamber. Together with the “five systemsâ€, the investment has reached 130 million yuan, of which the emergency hedging system has invested more than 70 million yuan. If the emergency hedging system covers hundreds of miners in the mine, Changcun Coal Mine will establish a total of seven refuge chambers and 62 movable rescue capsules.
A coal industry expert in Shanxi Province estimates that a mine with an annual production capacity of 900,000 tons will only need to invest at least 20 million yuan in an emergency hedging system. At present, there are 1053 mines in Shanxi Province. In the next three years, only the emergency hedging system will require at least 21 billion to 25 billion yuan. Within three years, all coal mine construction emergency hedging systems in the country will be a huge safety investment.
The second is to improve the mine management level. At the beginning of this year, Zhao Tiemei said that this year China will introduce new regulations to eliminate the low gas mine grade. All coal mines are divided into three categories: gas mines, high gas mines, coal and gas outburst mines. All mines are managed by gas mines. In 2011, China will speed up the research and development of key technologies and major equipment such as prevention and control of gas disasters, promote the use of advanced and applicable technologies for coal mine gas control, and promote the gas prevention and control work system for all coal mines. After the introduction of this regulation, coal mines in various places must increase investment in monitoring, monitoring, and utilization of gas.
Third, following the coal resource integration and mergers and acquisitions in Shanxi, some coal-producing provinces have carried out this work. In the integration process, the integration entity will carry out large-scale technical transformation and new equipment investment for the integrated mine.
High coal prices will pass nationwide
The experts surveyed believe that the safety investment will increase substantially, and while raising the level of safe production, it will also push up the mining cost of tons of coal. From the perspective of demand, in addition to maintaining a certain demand for energy and raw materials such as coal in the eastern region, the “development expectation†of the central and western regions will maintain strong demand for coal, electricity and other raw materials and raw materials.
Looking at the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†in various places, many regions have lowered their GDP growth rate, but many central and western provinces will maintain rapid growth. Some regions have raised the goal of “doubling GDPâ€, and the main way to double GDP Growth in fixed asset investment. In many regions, the fixed assets investment of the whole society has doubled during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. At the same time, many provinces are actively seeking cooperation with central enterprises in the hope that large-scale investment projects will be settled locally. Shandong, Hebei, Yunnan, Guangxi, Shanxi and other regions have recently or are in the process of negotiating with hundreds of central enterprises.
With fixed asset investment to drive GDP growth, it must be effective at the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". All localities must concentrate and invest in high intensity in the first three years of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". Accelerated investment in fixed assets will directly drive demand for energy and raw materials. Industry insiders estimate that coal demand in the upstream will not be cut. The reform of the resource tax of the main producing areas of coal may also be reflected in the rise in coal prices. Once the coal price transmission conditions are met, it is highly likely to be transmitted to the whole country.
Shanxi coal production and export guarantees have an irreplaceable position in the country. Although Inner Mongolia's coal production has surpassed Shanxi's number one, the bottleneck of coal export has obvious constraints and cannot be resolved in the short term. Shanxi, as a traditional national coal production and supply center, has mature foreign transportation facilities and has an irreplaceable position in the national coal map. It objectively has the conditions for cost transmission to the whole country. At the same time, as the concentration of coal production increases, the price of “speaking power†of large coal enterprises increases, and the market supply can be adjusted by controlling the pace of production release, so that prices remain at a relatively high level.
In an interview with the "Weiwang" News Weekly, some economic experts believe that in the past few decades of rapid economic growth in the country, the energy resources producing areas have paid a painful ecological and security cost, "with the implementation of the country's strategy of transforming economic development mode As well as the urgent need for the gradual relaxation of social contradictions and the simultaneous development of economy and society, resource-based regions must pay 'transformation costs' including improving the level of safe production, implementing ecological restoration, and improving the level of social development.
In its view, the “development cost†model of single payment by resource-producing areas will be replaced by the model paid by the whole society. “The increase in the cost of resource exploitation and the transmission of prices to downstream industries is an inevitable trend.â€
Coal-electricity contradictions for many years
"The problems existing in thermal power enterprises are basically the contradiction of market coal planning electricity, and the contradiction brought about by the lag of electricity price reform." Li Jianwei, vice chairman of Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association, told the "Weiwang" News Weekly to solve the difficulties of thermal power enterprises. The approach is to accelerate and promote the reform of the electricity system with the electricity price mechanism as the core. "It is recommended that the 12th Five-Year Nationals should actively promote the reform of electricity prices and the reform of the power system to make the power industry continue to develop healthily."
Li Jianwei believes that the main reasons for the huge loss situation in Shanxi's power industry are as follows: First, the on-grid tariff is too low, Shanxi electricity price is about 0.1 yuan lower than the national average on-grid price; second, coal price rises too fast, Shanxi Province Power The industry surveyed some of the main power plants and found that in 2006, the unit price of the standard thermal power of the province's thermal power enterprises was 298 yuan / ton, up to 700 yuan by 2010; the third is a large decline in coal quality; the fourth is the increase in coal transportation and sales. The fifth is that the air-generation unit generates more power than the non-air-cooled unit.
Due to the severely low on-grid tariffs and the rising fuel costs, most thermal power companies in Shanxi have suffered from years of losses since 2006, and their operating conditions have become increasingly difficult. Since 2010, due to the rapid increase in coal prices, the operation of Shanxi thermal power enterprises has further deteriorated. The total loss of the 28 million installed thermal power generation enterprises in the province has reached 5.05 billion yuan (the provincial installed capacity accounted for 68.6% of the province's installed capacity). . At the same time, the marginal profit of the company is close to zero, the asset-liability ratio is abnormally high, and the debt ratio of some power plants is as high as 100% or even higher. Most of the enterprise capital chains are facing the risk of breakage. Some power generation companies rely solely on the group companies to maintain liquidity, and the operating conditions are difficult.
It is understood that the contradiction between coal and electricity is a problem intertwined for many years. Compared with other provinces, the coal-electricity contradiction in Shanxi is more acute and typical. When the plant network is separated, the on-grid price of Shanxi Power Plant is determined by the Shanxi Power Plant to enjoy the “pit coal priceâ€, and the on-grid price is the lowest in the country. However, when the management attributes of power plants and coal mines have changed, the two sides have represented the interests of central enterprises and local enterprises, and the contradictions between the two sides have become increasingly acute.
In this regard, Li Jianwei suggested: First, in view of the fact that the on-grid electricity price in Shanxi is seriously low, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism has been partially initiated in Shanxi and other provinces where the thermal power enterprises have suffered serious losses. The on-grid tariffs of power plants in different regions of the province should be different according to different coal costs; secondly, cancel the charging project of coal transportation and sales companies to reduce the unreasonable economic burden of power generation enterprises; third, some coal dealers in order to make profits Coal adulteration. In order to establish a good market environment, the government must resolutely crack down on coal adulteration. Fourth, at present, China implements cost pricing principles for thermal power generation enterprises. The power generation cost of air-cooled generator sets is much higher than that of non-air-cooled units. It is obviously unreasonable that the on-grid tariff is not reflected. The air-conditioner should be appropriately increased for air-cooled units.
In an interview with News Weekly, Zhang Fuming, director of the Shanxi Government Development Research Center, said that in Shanxi, the measures to resolve the contradiction between coal and electricity can be launched at the same time as the coal resource tax, and the reform of “price bundling†is carried out. “Coal, electricity The two sides are both parties to conflicts of interest and interests. The main cost of thermal power companies is coal. If coal prices rise too fast, power plants will cause large losses. If power plants are difficult to operate due to rising coal prices, they will reduce coal consumption. There is no benefit to the coal industry itself."
He suggested that this reform could be piloted in Shanxi, and both coal and electricity companies would “bundle†linkages in the face of open and transparent costs to jointly cope with market volatility. Specifically, based on the cost level of the whole industry, with reference to international pricing, a base price lower or lower than the cost price can be formulated. The floating price is determined by the price and profit level of downstream products, and the benefits are shared, and the price of upstream products is reversed.
Recently, "Weiwang" News Weekly was informed that 10 thermal power companies in Shanxi Province reported in the Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association that 10 power plants had accumulated losses of more than 9.7 billion yuan from 2008 to 2010, and there was a serious shortage of cash flow. The company has been insolvent, and “the business situation has deepened and deteriorated, and it has become difficult to sustainâ€. The power plant requires the association to report to the relevant state ministries.
By the end of 2010, Shanxi Province had installed power generation capacity of more than 44 million kilowatts, and thermal power installed capacity accounted for 97%. In 2010, the province's power generation capacity was about 206 billion kilowatt hours, of which 68.5 billion kilowatt hours were delivered. Last year, Shanxi's coal production reached a record high, reaching more than 740 million tons. In the “coal-producing and power-transporting†province of Shanxi, such “joint letters†will be staged every year.
At the same time, our reporter learned that in the next few years, China's coal industry will substantially increase investment in safety production. Under the condition that demand will not be attenuated, factors such as cost transmission will push coal prices to maintain high levels of operation. "will increase. The people in the power industry interviewed believe that the state should accelerate and promote the reform of the power system with the electricity price mechanism as the core. Some experts suggested that the pilot measures to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity and the coal resource tax should be launched at the same time, and the "price bundling" reform should be carried out to break the contradiction between coal and electricity while ensuring the smooth progress of the coal market reform.
The era of "high security costs"
At present, coal mine safety production is an important area for safe production, and it is a "top priority" for some coal major provinces. Some experts told the "Weiwang" News Weekly that with the deepening of the economic development mode, governments and enterprises at all levels will face stricter safety production assessment and accountability mechanisms, and raising the cost of safe production is an inevitable choice. In the next two or three years, China will substantially increase the investment in coal mine safety production.
First, the construction of mine safety and hedging "six major systems" has become a rigid indicator. According to the requirements of the State Council, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Supervision in August 2010 identified coal mine monitoring and control, personnel positioning, emergency hedging, pressure self-rescue, water supply rescue and communication liaison and other safe havens "six systems "Build a perfect timetable.
Among them, before the end of 2010, all coal mines completed the construction of mine monitoring and control, pressure self-rescue, water supply rescue and communication system; at the end of 2011, all coal mines completed the underground personnel positioning system; before the end of June 2012, all coal (rock ) With gas (carbon dioxide) highlighting high gas in mines, central enterprises and state-owned key coal mines, mining mines that are easy to self-ignite coal seams, complete the construction of emergency hedging systems; before the end of June 2013, all coal mines must complete emergency avoidance The construction of the insurance system is perfect. At the National Two Sessions this spring, Zhao Tiemei, deputy director of the State Administration of Work Safety and director of the State Administration of Coal Supervision, said that “the coal mine emergency shelters will be difficult to buildâ€.
Among the “six major systemsâ€, the “emergency risk avoidance system†for the first large-scale construction of mines in China may be the largest investment in coal mines. Take the Changcun Coal Mine of Shanxi Pan'an Group as an example. This is the first mine in the country to install an emergency hedging system. Changcun mine produces about five or six million tons of coal per year, and there are about 600 people working in each class. At present, Changcun Mine has installed 8 underground mobile rescue capsules and a permanent refuge chamber. Together with the “five systemsâ€, the investment has reached 130 million yuan, of which the emergency hedging system has invested more than 70 million yuan. If the emergency hedging system covers hundreds of miners in the mine, Changcun Coal Mine will establish a total of seven refuge chambers and 62 movable rescue capsules.
A coal industry expert in Shanxi Province estimates that a mine with an annual production capacity of 900,000 tons will only need to invest at least 20 million yuan in an emergency hedging system. At present, there are 1053 mines in Shanxi Province. In the next three years, only the emergency hedging system will require at least 21 billion to 25 billion yuan. Within three years, all coal mine construction emergency hedging systems in the country will be a huge safety investment.
The second is to improve the mine management level. At the beginning of this year, Zhao Tiemei said that this year China will introduce new regulations to eliminate the low gas mine grade. All coal mines are divided into three categories: gas mines, high gas mines, coal and gas outburst mines. All mines are managed by gas mines. In 2011, China will speed up the research and development of key technologies and major equipment such as prevention and control of gas disasters, promote the use of advanced and applicable technologies for coal mine gas control, and promote the gas prevention and control work system for all coal mines. After the introduction of this regulation, coal mines in various places must increase investment in monitoring, monitoring, and utilization of gas.
Third, following the coal resource integration and mergers and acquisitions in Shanxi, some coal-producing provinces have carried out this work. In the integration process, the integration entity will carry out large-scale technical transformation and new equipment investment for the integrated mine.
High coal prices will pass nationwide
The experts surveyed believe that the safety investment will increase substantially, and while raising the level of safe production, it will also push up the mining cost of tons of coal. From the perspective of demand, in addition to maintaining a certain demand for energy and raw materials such as coal in the eastern region, the “development expectation†of the central and western regions will maintain strong demand for coal, electricity and other raw materials and raw materials.
Looking at the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†in various places, many regions have lowered their GDP growth rate, but many central and western provinces will maintain rapid growth. Some regions have raised the goal of “doubling GDPâ€, and the main way to double GDP Growth in fixed asset investment. In many regions, the fixed assets investment of the whole society has doubled during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. At the same time, many provinces are actively seeking cooperation with central enterprises in the hope that large-scale investment projects will be settled locally. Shandong, Hebei, Yunnan, Guangxi, Shanxi and other regions have recently or are in the process of negotiating with hundreds of central enterprises.
With fixed asset investment to drive GDP growth, it must be effective at the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". All localities must concentrate and invest in high intensity in the first three years of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". Accelerated investment in fixed assets will directly drive demand for energy and raw materials. Industry insiders estimate that coal demand in the upstream will not be cut. The reform of the resource tax of the main producing areas of coal may also be reflected in the rise in coal prices. Once the coal price transmission conditions are met, it is highly likely to be transmitted to the whole country.
Shanxi coal production and export guarantees have an irreplaceable position in the country. Although Inner Mongolia's coal production has surpassed Shanxi's number one, the bottleneck of coal export has obvious constraints and cannot be resolved in the short term. Shanxi, as a traditional national coal production and supply center, has mature foreign transportation facilities and has an irreplaceable position in the national coal map. It objectively has the conditions for cost transmission to the whole country. At the same time, as the concentration of coal production increases, the price of “speaking power†of large coal enterprises increases, and the market supply can be adjusted by controlling the pace of production release, so that prices remain at a relatively high level.
In an interview with the "Weiwang" News Weekly, some economic experts believe that in the past few decades of rapid economic growth in the country, the energy resources producing areas have paid a painful ecological and security cost, "with the implementation of the country's strategy of transforming economic development mode As well as the urgent need for the gradual relaxation of social contradictions and the simultaneous development of economy and society, resource-based regions must pay 'transformation costs' including improving the level of safe production, implementing ecological restoration, and improving the level of social development.
In its view, the “development cost†model of single payment by resource-producing areas will be replaced by the model paid by the whole society. “The increase in the cost of resource exploitation and the transmission of prices to downstream industries is an inevitable trend.â€
Coal-electricity contradictions for many years
"The problems existing in thermal power enterprises are basically the contradiction of market coal planning electricity, and the contradiction brought about by the lag of electricity price reform." Li Jianwei, vice chairman of Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association, told the "Weiwang" News Weekly to solve the difficulties of thermal power enterprises. The approach is to accelerate and promote the reform of the electricity system with the electricity price mechanism as the core. "It is recommended that the 12th Five-Year Nationals should actively promote the reform of electricity prices and the reform of the power system to make the power industry continue to develop healthily."
Li Jianwei believes that the main reasons for the huge loss situation in Shanxi's power industry are as follows: First, the on-grid tariff is too low, Shanxi electricity price is about 0.1 yuan lower than the national average on-grid price; second, coal price rises too fast, Shanxi Province Power The industry surveyed some of the main power plants and found that in 2006, the unit price of the standard thermal power of the province's thermal power enterprises was 298 yuan / ton, up to 700 yuan by 2010; the third is a large decline in coal quality; the fourth is the increase in coal transportation and sales. The fifth is that the air-generation unit generates more power than the non-air-cooled unit.
Due to the severely low on-grid tariffs and the rising fuel costs, most thermal power companies in Shanxi have suffered from years of losses since 2006, and their operating conditions have become increasingly difficult. Since 2010, due to the rapid increase in coal prices, the operation of Shanxi thermal power enterprises has further deteriorated. The total loss of the 28 million installed thermal power generation enterprises in the province has reached 5.05 billion yuan (the provincial installed capacity accounted for 68.6% of the province's installed capacity). . At the same time, the marginal profit of the company is close to zero, the asset-liability ratio is abnormally high, and the debt ratio of some power plants is as high as 100% or even higher. Most of the enterprise capital chains are facing the risk of breakage. Some power generation companies rely solely on the group companies to maintain liquidity, and the operating conditions are difficult.
It is understood that the contradiction between coal and electricity is a problem intertwined for many years. Compared with other provinces, the coal-electricity contradiction in Shanxi is more acute and typical. When the plant network is separated, the on-grid price of Shanxi Power Plant is determined by the Shanxi Power Plant to enjoy the “pit coal priceâ€, and the on-grid price is the lowest in the country. However, when the management attributes of power plants and coal mines have changed, the two sides have represented the interests of central enterprises and local enterprises, and the contradictions between the two sides have become increasingly acute.
In this regard, Li Jianwei suggested: First, in view of the fact that the on-grid electricity price in Shanxi is seriously low, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism has been partially initiated in Shanxi and other provinces where the thermal power enterprises have suffered serious losses. The on-grid tariffs of power plants in different regions of the province should be different according to different coal costs; secondly, cancel the charging project of coal transportation and sales companies to reduce the unreasonable economic burden of power generation enterprises; third, some coal dealers in order to make profits Coal adulteration. In order to establish a good market environment, the government must resolutely crack down on coal adulteration. Fourth, at present, China implements cost pricing principles for thermal power generation enterprises. The power generation cost of air-cooled generator sets is much higher than that of non-air-cooled units. It is obviously unreasonable that the on-grid tariff is not reflected. The air-conditioner should be appropriately increased for air-cooled units.
In an interview with News Weekly, Zhang Fuming, director of the Shanxi Government Development Research Center, said that in Shanxi, the measures to resolve the contradiction between coal and electricity can be launched at the same time as the coal resource tax, and the reform of “price bundling†is carried out. “Coal, electricity The two sides are both parties to conflicts of interest and interests. The main cost of thermal power companies is coal. If coal prices rise too fast, power plants will cause large losses. If power plants are difficult to operate due to rising coal prices, they will reduce coal consumption. There is no benefit to the coal industry itself."
He suggested that this reform could be piloted in Shanxi, and both coal and electricity companies would “bundle†linkages in the face of open and transparent costs to jointly cope with market volatility. Specifically, based on the cost level of the whole industry, with reference to international pricing, a base price lower or lower than the cost price can be formulated. The floating price is determined by the price and profit level of downstream products, and the benefits are shared, and the price of upstream products is reversed.
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