[Jiuzhi Plastics News] Due to the loose supply and the end of the season of plastic film consumption, plastics futures continued their decline. As of the close of April 18, the main plastic contract of 1709 closed at 8,820 yuan / ton, down 660 yuan / ton from the rebound high of April 6, a decline of 6.96%. From a technical point of view, plastics futures are still in the C wave, but 8900 yuan / ton is a strong support level, the recent market is still testing this support.
Current price difference needs to return
Recently, the market's concerns about geopolitics have made the overall commodity weak. Plastics are no exception. Since the market is bearish, the futures trend has weakened since February, but due to the support of the peak demand season, the spot decline is significantly smaller than the futures. This phenomenon caused the plastics price gap to continue to expand. As of April 18, the spot price in East China was 9,250 yuan / ton, the futures contract was closed at 8,820 yuan / ton, the basis reached 430 yuan / ton. At present, the basis is at a high level, and the current price difference is in urgent need of return. In May, the contract for May was closed at RMB 9010/ton. Compared with the spot, there is still a price difference of RMB 200/ton. Considering that the May contract is about to be delivered, the margin will also increase. The difference between the May contract and the spot will return. .
Supply and demand pattern is relatively stable
There are many forms of basis repair, but the probability of plastics futures returning to the spot is high. First of all, with the spring broadcast, the season of film consumption has come to an end, downstream orders have decreased, and plastics have entered the low season of consumption. Correspondingly, the plastics equipment began to enter the inspection season in the second quarter. The installations of Shenhua Xinjiang have begun to be overhauled. The installations of Panjin Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical will also be overhauled this week. Considering the low price of plastics, the maintenance of the latter equipment is expected to continue. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of plastics is relatively stable, and the down action caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in the early stage is attenuating.
Secondly, since February, the high social stocks of polyethylene have played a strong role in suppressing plastics, but there are already signs of loosening in polyethylene social stocks. It should be noted that as of April 12, the petrochemical stocks in East China, North China, South China and Central China were only 55,000 tons, which was at a low level, which would prompt the follow-up behavior of petrochemicals.
Finally, the current domestic spot price is low, and the price of imported plastics equivalent to RMB is about 9,800 yuan / ton, the domestic supply price advantage is obvious, resulting in the closing of the import arbitrage to the domestic arbitrage window. Therefore, the recent import of polyethylene is relatively small, which has further supported the price of plastics.
Overall, the current price difference in the plastics period is large and needs to be repaired. Considering that there are many overhauls in polyethylene enterprises in recent years, petrochemical inventories are at a low level, and the import arbitrage window is closed. The author believes that there is not much room for plastic spot to fall, and the basis repair will be completed in the way of futures running to the spot. Therefore, plastics futures may rebound due to the repair of the current spread.
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