Abstract Low-cost bidding, single-crystal running, polycrystalline loss... In 2016, the photovoltaic industry was very “noisyâ€, and it seems to be due to the PV “leaders†plan. ...
Low-price winning bid, single crystal running, polycrystalline loss... In 2016, the photovoltaic industry is very “noisyâ€, it seems to be due to the photovoltaic “leaders†plan. The original intention of the "Leader" program is to promote the market-oriented concept of "advanced technology leading" and "advanced enterprise leading" in the photovoltaic industry, make full use of resources, eliminate backward production capacity, promote the photovoltaic industry to gradually get rid of subsidies, and realize photovoltaic parity online at an early date.
Although the original intention is good, but the "Leader" program overemphasized the single technical indicators, but set off a single polycrystalline debate that lasted for one and a half years, the industry's attention far exceeded the technical competition between single polycrystals.
The dispute over single polycrystals has never stopped, and polycrystalline has long been in an absolute competitive advantage, accounting for more than 90% of the global market share. However, the dominance of polycrystals in recent years is increasingly being challenged by single crystals.
Since 2015, domestic monocrystalline expansion has been high-profile. In just one and a half years, the proportion of single crystals in the world has soared from less than 10% to more than 20%. With the innovation of polycrystalline technology, the single poly-grain saw war was once again pushed to the climax.
Single crystal borrowed from high-profile expansion
Faced with the single-crystal counterattack, some experts believe that after decades of technological improvement, the stability and service life of monocrystalline silicon cells have reached the highest level in the industry, and the cost and polysilicon components are gradually shrinking.
According to many sources, the bottom gas of the single crystal counterattack, part of the diamond wire cutting technology that was fully implemented last year, has achieved a significant drop in the cost of single crystal, and even competes with polycrystalline phase. Affected by this positive, reports of the expansion of production capacity of many single crystal companies have been reported from time to time.
At the same time, it is undeniable that a big driving force for the rise of single-crystal high-profile is the “leadership†plan for the photovoltaic industry. From June 2015, the 1GW National Advanced Technology Photovoltaic Demonstration Base in Datong Coal Mining Subsidence Area of ​​Shanxi Province was approved. By May 2016, the first batch and the second batch of 5.5GW “leaders†bases were announced, totaling 6.5GW. The market size of the “leaders†project has triggered competition among various PV companies.
In this round of competition, in addition to price, technology has become a key indicator. The "Leading Runners" program stipulates that the photoelectric conversion efficiency of polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon battery modules should reach 16.5% and 17% respectively for the specifications of advanced technology products.
In many people's opinion, the standard has a lower threshold for single crystal components than polycrystalline components.
So, what is the basis for setting the single polycrystal index?
According to the information of the reporter, on March 25, 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “2015 Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditionsâ€, which refers to the 2013 single polycrystalline technology production standard, which specifies the photoelectric conversion efficiency of single polycrystalline silicon battery components. Not less than 16% and 15.5%. Based on this industry norm, the 2015 “Top Runner†program has increased the efficiency of single polycrystalline cell modules by 1%, requiring 17% and 16.5% respectively. When the standard came out, it immediately triggered the "single war" of the single polycrystal that continued to this day. The "Leader" program was also controversial because of the technical indicators that the selection criteria were too single and excessively emphasized conversion efficiency.
Standard defect effect discount
"Competition is a good thing, it can promote technological progress, cost reduction, and reach PV parity online at an early date. The main line of 'Leader' is correct, but there are defects in the design of the single polycrystal, two technologies The route standard should at least be more than 1.5 in efficiency, rather than the difference between the two in the current 'Leader' program." Recently, an expert interviewed by the reporter said.
The original intention of the 'Top Runner' program is to promote technology upgrades in the photovoltaic industry. However, according to the survey of Bloomberg Financial on the industry, the average efficiency level of the single polycrystalline industry at the end of 2015 was 17.1% and 16.1% respectively, for the 'Top Runner' program. In the 17% efficiency requirement of medium crystal, almost all ordinary single crystal products can be easily selected," Peng Bo Finance Solar analyst Jiang Yazhen pointed out in an interview.
"In addition to the Chinese market, in the global PV market, the mainstream is still polycrystalline products, and the proportion of polycrystalline is at least 97%." Xing Guoqiang, vice president of technology at Artes, told reporters that "realistically speaking, competing in the free market." Under the environment, single crystal can not be compared with polycrystalline PK in terms of cost performance. The domestic 'leaders' plan technical indicators, if the polycrystalline 270 watts, the single crystal should be at least 285 watts, this can be called 'leading run'."
Industry experts pointed out that in the domestic large-scale photovoltaic application market, to promote photovoltaic early parity online, the market will choose more cost-effective products, and promote more technical routes to compete. “Considering the cost performance of each technology route, a single technical indicator has its limitations. At the same time, it should also consume more than 80% of the power consumption per watt of single crystal, and rarely use it for other large-scale photovoltaic power plants abroad. The actual situation is considered."
It is not difficult to find that the domestic single polycrystalline market pattern has been reshaped, but in the process of single crystal expansion, ordinary single crystal wire has become the mainstream. Relevant data show that in the “Leader†demonstration base and the “Leader†project, the high-efficiency single crystal accounted for less than 20%, which also triggered the industry to “excess domestic monocrystalline overcapacity or will be exposed in the next few years. Worried out."
Domestic ordinary single crystals can easily meet the consequences of the “leaders†indicator, which not only weakens the power of single crystal enterprises to develop high-efficiency single crystals, but also loses the critical time for the release of domestic high-efficiency single crystal production capacity. Some experts pointed out that "in 2017, the global photovoltaic market demand for high-efficiency single crystal is still expanding, but it is subject to the scale and speed of high-efficiency single crystal production in the past two years in China, and the cycle of adding new capacity waiting for the import of high-efficiency single crystal production equipment. In the future, there will be an embarrassing situation in which domestic high-efficiency single crystals are 'valuable without market'."
This strength and strength competition
"A healthy and developed industry, the market is the premise of industrial development, and manufacturing is the foundation of industrial development. Now it is a key node for China's PV industry upgrade and manufacturing upgrade. It needs to increase support for technology research and development and capital investment to catch up with Europe. In the field of high-end manufacturing in the field of photovoltaics and accelerate the scale of industrialization, to meet the era of photovoltaic parity online," Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association said in an interview.
In the face of policy tilting of single crystals, polycrystalline enterprises are accelerating their technological research and development, showing an unprecedented development trend.
Artes, Poly GCL, Jinko Energy, Hanwha New Energy, and Trina Solar have announced that the conversion efficiency of polycrystalline components continues to set a new world record. Among them, Jingke Energy's high-efficiency polycrystalline battery using PERC and black silicon technology has entered the mass production stage. The average efficiency of mass production has reached 20.13% at the end of 2015, and it is expected to increase the mass production efficiency to over 20.5% this year. Hanwha's new energy polycrystalline components have a conversion efficiency of 19.5% and a power of 301W. Trina Solar began mass production of P-type polycrystalline black silicon + PERC battery efficiency of 20.16%.
Some industry experts predict that the speed of polysilicon expansion in 2017 will depend on the speed of promotion of black silicon and diamond wire cutting processes. "Polysilicon is expected to open again and the price of monocrystalline silicon, with a cost-effective advantage, to regain the lost market."
Xing Guoqiang also stressed that the promotion of polycrystalline black silicon technology and the use of polycrystalline diamond wire still have a huge space for cost reduction. Artes' technology research and development results in this field will be effective in the next year.
“Since 2016, Polycrystalline has promoted the cost-effectiveness of diamond-line technology with the addition of black silicon technology. The demand for single crystals in the first half of 2017 is strong, not because of the rising competitiveness of single crystals, but because of the 'leaders' of last year’s bidding. In the project, a considerable proportion of single crystal components were designed for the technical points, resulting in the demand for single crystals exceeding the supply capacity of single crystals.†Lv Jinbiao, vice president of Poly GCL, said in an interview that “there is no 'leader' project in the second half of the year, It’s really fighting for strength.â€
Lu Jinbiao said that if the market has single crystal demand, it will not repeat the investment in the existing conventional CZ single crystal production capacity, but through the polycrystalline ingot plant thermal field transformation to produce single crystal, the efficiency is comparable and the cost is straighter than the single crystal A lot lower. At the same time, large-scale promotion of polycrystalline diamond wire transformation and black silicon technology support and PERC technology, together with the mainstream enterprises in the industry, the high proportion of polycrystalline industrial chain to achieve the ultimate, to minimize the cost of photovoltaic power generation.
It is worth mentioning that the upcoming "super run" plan is once again a hot topic.
It is reported that the "super-running" plan is intended to support the scale application of photovoltaic products that have the mass production capacity but the capacity has not been released and represent advanced technology, and the scale of each base is The GW level is very large.
“The government hopes to provide a domestic market for advanced technology with independent innovation technology for a period of two to three years. Because such enterprises may have very small initial production capacity, giving such a base to these enterprises is equivalent to a reassurance. Pushing the scale of this advanced product." A person familiar with the matter said.
The original intention is still good, but with the first show of the "Leader" program, the "Super Run" plan has not been released, the industry has been in a dark tide, and the dispute over the formulation of rules and standards has begun.
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